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Verl vs Hamburger SV — DFB-Pokal

Verl crestVerl
Full time0–3
Hamburger SV crestHamburger SV

How the call landed

DFB-Pokal·24 Aug
1 market hit
Model called
Verl crestVER1–0HSHamburger SV crest
Full time
Verl crestVER0–3HSHamburger SV crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-3 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.13

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickDFB-Pokal
Mon 24 Aug · 18:00 SAST
Verl crestVerl
Projected1–0xG 1.40 · 1.30
Hamburger SV crestHamburger SV

No strong lean — near even (35% / 34% / 31%), projecting 1-0.

VERDrawHS
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean35%
Both teams to scoreYes55%
Total goalsOver 2.551%
Double chanceNo strong lean69%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (35% / 34% / 31%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 1.4–1.3 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 55%, over 2.5 goals 51%. Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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