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MSV Duisburg vs SV Elversberg — DFB-Pokal

MSV Duisburg crestMSV Duisburg
Full time1–3
SV Elversberg crestSV Elversberg

How the call landed

DFB-Pokal·22 Aug
Result hit
Model called
MSV Duisburg crestMD1–2SESV Elversberg crest
Full time
MSV Duisburg crestMD1–3SESV Elversberg crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 1-2, finished 1-3).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 1-3 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.42

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickDFB-Pokal
Sat 22 Aug · 15:30 SAST
MSV Duisburg crestMSV Duisburg
Projected1–2xG 1.40 · 1.50
SV Elversberg crestSV Elversberg

No strong lean — near even (32% / 33% / 35%), projecting 1-2.

MDDrawSE
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean35%
Both teams to scoreYes59%
Total goalsOver 2.557%
Double chanceNo strong lean68%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (32% / 33% / 35%), projecting 1-2.

Projected 1-2 from 1.4–1.5 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 59%, over 2.5 goals 57%. Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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