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Erzgebirge Aue vs 1899 Hoffenheim — DFB-Pokal

Erzgebirge Aue crestErzgebirge Aue
Full time0–4
1899 Hoffenheim crest1899 Hoffenheim

How the call landed

DFB-Pokal·22 Aug
Result hit
Model called
Erzgebirge Aue crestEA1–21H1899 Hoffenheim crest
Full time
Erzgebirge Aue crestEA0–41H1899 Hoffenheim crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 1-2, finished 0-4).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 0-4 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.26

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickDFB-Pokal
Sat 22 Aug · 15:30 SAST
Erzgebirge Aue crestErzgebirge Aue
Projected1–2xG 1.20 · 1.80
1899 Hoffenheim crest1899 Hoffenheim

No strong lean — near even (22% / 28% / 50%), projecting 1-2.

EADraw1H
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean50%
Both teams to scoreYes58%
Total goalsOver 2.558%
Double chanceNo strong lean78%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (22% / 28% / 50%), projecting 1-2.

Projected 1-2 from 1.2–1.8 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 58%, over 2.5 goals 58%. Model projects 1.19–1.83 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → 1H

    Model projects 1.19–1.83 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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