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Altglienicke vs VfL Wolfsburg — DFB-Pokal

Altglienicke crestAltglienicke
Full time3–3
VfL Wolfsburg crestVfL Wolfsburg

How the call landed

DFB-Pokal·24 Aug
2 markets hit
Model called
Altglienicke crestALT2–1VWVfL Wolfsburg crest
Full time
Altglienicke crestALT3–3VWVfL Wolfsburg crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 3-3 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.33

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickDFB-Pokal
Mon 24 Aug · 18:00 SAST
Altglienicke crestAltglienicke
Projected2–1xG 2.20 · 1.10
VfL Wolfsburg crestVfL Wolfsburg

The model leans Altglienicke (57%), projecting 2-1.

ALTDrawVW
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultAltglienicke win57%
Both teams to scoreYes60%
Total goalsOver 2.564%
Double chanceAltglienicke or draw82%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Altglienicke (57%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 2.2–1.1 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 60%, over 2.5 goals 64%. Model projects 2.18–1.12 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → ALT

    Model projects 2.18–1.12 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~64% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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