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Eintracht Braunschweig vs Union Berlin — DFB-Pokal

Eintracht Braunschweig crestEintracht Braunschweig
Full time2–4
Union Berlin crestUnion Berlin

How the call landed

DFB-Pokal·23 Aug
2 markets hit
Model called
Eintracht Braunschweig crestEB2–1UBUnion Berlin crest
Full time
Eintracht Braunschweig crestEB2–4UBUnion Berlin crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 2-4 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.20

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickDFB-Pokal
Sun 23 Aug · 15:30 SAST
Eintracht Braunschweig crestEintracht Braunschweig
Projected2–1xG 1.80 · 1.30
Union Berlin crestUnion Berlin

No strong lean — near even (45% / 30% / 25%), projecting 2-1.

EBDrawUB
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean45%
Both teams to scoreYes60%
Total goalsOver 2.559%
Double chanceNo strong lean75%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (45% / 30% / 25%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 1.8–1.3 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 60%, over 2.5 goals 59%. Model projects 1.79–1.28 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → EB

    Model projects 1.79–1.28 expected goals

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~60% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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