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Bahlinger SC vs 1. FC Magdeburg — DFB-Pokal

Bahlinger SC crestBahlinger SC
Full time0–4
1. FC Magdeburg crest1. FC Magdeburg

How the call landed

DFB-Pokal·23 Aug
2 markets hit
Model called
Bahlinger SC crestBS3–01FM1. FC Magdeburg crest
Full time
Bahlinger SC crestBS0–41FM1. FC Magdeburg crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-4 — missed.

Confidence HighCalibration error 0.73

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickDFB-Pokal
Sun 23 Aug · 15:30 SAST
Bahlinger SC crestBahlinger SC
Projected3–0xG 3.30 · 0.70
1. FC Magdeburg crest1. FC Magdeburg

The model leans Bahlinger SC (85%), projecting 3-0.

BSDraw1FM
Model confidenceHigh
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultBahlinger SC win85%
Both teams to scoreNo53%
Total goalsOver 2.575%
Double chanceBahlinger SC or draw95%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Bahlinger SC (85%), projecting 3-0.

Projected 3-0 from 3.3–0.7 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 47%, over 2.5 goals 75%. Model projects 3.28–0.67 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → BS

    Model projects 3.28–0.67 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~75% likely

  • Model conviction

    → Neutral

    Strong, decisive model signal

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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