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SV Wehen vs Bayer Leverkusen — DFB-Pokal

SV Wehen crestSV Wehen
Full time0–4
Bayer Leverkusen crestBayer Leverkusen

How the call landed

DFB-Pokal·22 Aug
2 markets hit
Model called
SV Wehen crestSW3–0BLBayer Leverkusen crest
Full time
SV Wehen crestSW0–4BLBayer Leverkusen crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-4 — missed.

Confidence HighCalibration error 0.79

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickDFB-Pokal
Sat 22 Aug · 13:00 SAST
SV Wehen crestSV Wehen
Projected3–0xG 3.30 · 0.50
Bayer Leverkusen crestBayer Leverkusen

The model leans Sv Wehen (89%), projecting 3-0.

SWDrawBL
Model confidenceHigh
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultSv Wehen win89%
Both teams to scoreNo61%
Total goalsOver 2.572%
Double chanceSv Wehen or draw97%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Sv Wehen (89%), projecting 3-0.

Projected 3-0 from 3.3–0.5 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 39%, over 2.5 goals 72%. Model projects 3.26–0.53 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → SW

    Model projects 3.26–0.53 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~72% likely

  • Model conviction

    → Neutral

    Strong, decisive model signal

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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