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FC Viktoria Köln vs 1. FC Nürnberg — DFB-Pokal

FC Viktoria Köln crestFC Viktoria Köln
Full time1–1
1. FC Nürnberg crest1. FC Nürnberg

How the call landed

DFB-Pokal·22 Aug
2 markets hit
Model called
FC Viktoria Köln crestFVK0–11FN1. FC Nürnberg crest
Full time
FC Viktoria Köln crestFVK1–11FN1. FC Nürnberg crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Under 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Under 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 1-1 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.24

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickDFB-Pokal
Sat 22 Aug · 15:30 SAST
FC Viktoria Köln crestFC Viktoria Köln
Projected0–1xG 1.00 · 1.60
1. FC Nürnberg crest1. FC Nürnberg

No strong lean — near even (22% / 29% / 49%), projecting 0-1.

FVKDraw1FN
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean49%
Both teams to scoreYes51%
Total goalsUnder 2.551%
Double chanceNo strong lean78%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (22% / 29% / 49%), projecting 0-1.

Projected 0-1 from 1.0–1.6 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 51%, over 2.5 goals 49%. Model projects 1.03–1.59 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → 1FN

    Model projects 1.03–1.59 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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