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Würzburger Kickers vs 1. FC Köln — DFB-Pokal

How the call landed

DFB-Pokal·24 Aug
Result hit
Model called
Würzburger Kickers crestWRK0–11FK1. FC Köln crest
Full time
Würzburger Kickers crestWRK1–21FK1. FC Köln crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 0-1, finished 1-2).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 1-2 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.28

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickDFB-Pokal
Mon 24 Aug · 18:00 SAST
Würzburger Kickers crestWürzburger Kickers
Projected0–1xG 1.10 · 1.60
1. FC Köln crest1. FC Köln

No strong lean — near even (23% / 29% / 48%), projecting 0-1.

WRKDraw1FK
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean48%
Both teams to scoreYes54%
Total goalsOver 2.551%
Double chanceNo strong lean77%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (23% / 29% / 48%), projecting 0-1.

Projected 0-1 from 1.1–1.6 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 54%, over 2.5 goals 51%. Model projects 1.10–1.63 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → 1FK

    Model projects 1.10–1.63 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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