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Westfalia Rhynern vs Dynamo Dresden — DFB-Pokal

Westfalia Rhynern crestWestfalia Rhynern
Full time0–6
Dynamo Dresden crestDynamo Dresden

How the call landed

DFB-Pokal·23 Aug
1 market hit
Model called
Westfalia Rhynern crestWR2–1DDDynamo Dresden crest
Full time
Westfalia Rhynern crestWR0–6DDDynamo Dresden crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-6 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.19

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickDFB-Pokal
Sun 23 Aug · 15:30 SAST
Westfalia Rhynern crestWestfalia Rhynern
Projected2–1xG 1.80 · 1.30
Dynamo Dresden crestDynamo Dresden

No strong lean — near even (44% / 30% / 26%), projecting 2-1.

WRDrawDD
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean44%
Both teams to scoreYes62%
Total goalsOver 2.561%
Double chanceNo strong lean74%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (44% / 30% / 26%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 1.8–1.3 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 62%, over 2.5 goals 61%. Model projects 1.81–1.33 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → WR

    Model projects 1.81–1.33 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~61% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~62% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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