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VfL Osnabrück vs Bayern München — DFB-Pokal

VfL Osnabrück crestVfL Osnabrück
Full time1–4
Bayern München crestBayern München

How the call landed

DFB-Pokal·2 Sep
Result hit
Model called
VfL Osnabrück crestVOC0–1BMNBayern München crest
Full time
VfL Osnabrück crestVOC1–4BMNBayern München crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 0-1, finished 1-4).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 1-4 — partial.

Confidence ModerateCalibration error 0.11

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickDFB-Pokal
Wed 2 Sep · 20:45 SAST
VfL Osnabrück crestVfL Osnabrück
Projected0–1xG 2.00 · 0.70
Bayern München crestBayern München

The model leans Bayern M Nchen (67%), projecting 0-1.

VOCDrawBMN
Model confidenceModerate
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultBayern M Nchen win67%
Both teams to scoreNo58%
Total goalsOver 2.550%
Double chanceDraw or Bayern M Nchen89%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Bayern M Nchen (67%), projecting 0-1.

Projected 0-1 from 2.0–0.7 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 42%, over 2.5 goals 50%. Model projects 2.01–0.67 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → VOC

    Model projects 2.01–0.67 expected goals

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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