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Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Köln — DFB-Pokal

Holstein Kiel crestHolstein Kiel
Tue 1 Dec21:00SAST
1. FC Köln crest1. FC Köln

The model’s prediction

Featured pickDFB-Pokal
Tue 1 Dec · 21:00 SAST
Holstein Kiel crestHolstein Kiel
Projected0–1xG 0.30 · 1.20
1. FC Köln crest1. FC Köln

No strong lean — near even (38% / 8% / 54%), projecting 0-1.

HKDraw1FK
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean54%
Both teams to scoreNo50%
Total goalsOver 2.565%
Double chanceNo strong lean62%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (38% / 8% / 54%), projecting 0-1.

Projected 0-1 from 0.3–1.2 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 50%, over 2.5 goals 65%. Model projects 0.28–1.22 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → 1FK

    Model projects 0.28–1.22 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~65% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

All markets

  • Match result

    No strong leanToo close to call

  • Double chance

    No strong leanToo close to call

  • Draw no bet

    No strong leanToo close to call

Double chance and draw no bet are worked out from the same win/draw/win probabilities as the result call.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

  1. OriginalCurrent
    1. FC Köln winH 38% · D 8% · A 54%Projected 0–1xG 0.28–1.22
    model random-forest@v3

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