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Fleetwood Town vs Everton — Carabao Cup

Fleetwood Town crestFleetwood Town
Tue 15 Dec21:45SAST
Everton crestEverton

The model’s prediction

Featured pickCarabao Cup
Tue 15 Dec · 21:45 SAST
Fleetwood Town crestFleetwood Town
Projected0–1xG 0.70 · 1.20
Everton crestEverton

The model leans Everton (76%), projecting 0-1.

FTDrawEVE
Model confidenceModerate
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultEverton win76%
Both teams to scoreYes51%
Total goalsOver 2.552%
Double chanceDraw or Everton94%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Everton (76%), projecting 0-1.

Projected 0-1 from 0.7–1.2 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 51%, over 2.5 goals 52%. Model projects 0.68–1.18 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → EVE

    Model projects 0.68–1.18 expected goals

  • Model conviction

    → Neutral

    Strong, decisive model signal

All markets

  • Match result

    Everton win76% model probability

  • Double chance

    Draw or Everton94% model probability

  • Draw no bet

    Everton93% model probability

Double chance and draw no bet are worked out from the same win/draw/win probabilities as the result call.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

  1. OriginalCurrent
    Everton winH 6% · D 18% · A 76%Projected 0–1xG 0.68–1.18
    model tier-logit@v1

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