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Crystal Palace vs Sunderland — Carabao Cup

Crystal Palace crestCrystal Palace
Tue 15 Dec21:45SAST
Sunderland crestSunderland

The model’s prediction

Featured pickCarabao Cup
Tue 15 Dec · 21:45 SAST
Crystal Palace crestCrystal Palace
Projected1–0xG 1.00 · 0.30
Sunderland crestSunderland

No strong lean — near even (45% / 23% / 32%), projecting 1-0.

CRYDrawSUN
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean45%
Both teams to scoreYes51%
Total goalsOver 2.552%
Double chanceNo strong lean68%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (45% / 23% / 32%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 1.0–0.3 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 51%, over 2.5 goals 52%. Model projects 0.97–0.28 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → CRY

    Model projects 0.97–0.28 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

All markets

  • Match result

    No strong leanToo close to call

  • Double chance

    No strong leanToo close to call

  • Draw no bet

    No strong leanToo close to call

Double chance and draw no bet are worked out from the same win/draw/win probabilities as the result call.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

  1. OriginalCurrent
    Crystal Palace winH 46% · D 23% · A 32%Projected 1–0xG 0.97–0.28
    model tier-logit@v1

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