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El Mokawloon vs Al Ahly — Egyptian Premier League

El Mokawloon crestEl Mokawloon
Full time1–1
Al Ahly crestAl Ahly

How the call landed

Egyptian Premier League·9 Sep
2 markets hit
Model called
El Mokawloon crestEM1–0AAAl Ahly crest
Full time
El Mokawloon crestEM1–1AAAl Ahly crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Under 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Under 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-1 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.17

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickEgyptian Premier League
Wed 9 Sep · 19:00 SAST
El Mokawloon crestEl Mokawloon
Projected1–0xG 1.50 · 1.10
Al Ahly crestAl Ahly

No strong lean — near even (41% / 32% / 27%), projecting 1-0.

EMDrawAA
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean41%
Both teams to scoreYes52%
Total goalsUnder 2.552%
Double chanceNo strong lean73%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (41% / 32% / 27%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 1.5–1.1 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 52%, over 2.5 goals 48%. Model projects 1.46–1.12 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → EM

    Model projects 1.46–1.12 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

El Mokawloon crest
El Mokawloon
vs
Al Ahly
Al Ahly crest
7League position3
11Points17
11Goals for14
8Goals against6
3Goal difference8

Current EGY table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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