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Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze — Ekstraklasa

Raków Częstochowa crestRaków Częstochowa
Full time1–2
Gornik Zabrze crestGornik Zabrze

How the call landed

Ekstraklasa·3 Sep
1 market hit
Model called
Raków Częstochowa crestRWC1–0GZGornik Zabrze crest
Full time
Raków Częstochowa crestRWC1–2GZGornik Zabrze crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Under 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Under 2.5, was Over 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-2 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.18

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickEkstraklasa
Thu 3 Sep · 18:00 SAST
Raków Częstochowa crestRaków Częstochowa
Projected1–0xG 1.50 · 1.10
Gornik Zabrze crestGornik Zabrze

No strong lean — near even (42% / 32% / 26%), projecting 1-0.

RWCDrawGZ
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean42%
Both teams to scoreYes52%
Total goalsUnder 2.551%
Double chanceNo strong lean74%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (42% / 32% / 26%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 1.5–1.1 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 52%, over 2.5 goals 49%. Model projects 1.51–1.12 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → RWC

    Model projects 1.51–1.12 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Raków Częstochowa crest
Raków Częstochowa
vs
Gornik Zabrze
Gornik Zabrze crest
18League position2
6Points27
16Goals for21
28Goals against11
-12Goal difference10

Current EKS table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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