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Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa — Ekstraklasa

Lech Poznan crestLech Poznan
Full time1–0
Raków Częstochowa crestRaków Częstochowa

How the call landed

Ekstraklasa·6 Sep
Result hit
Model called
Lech Poznan crestLP3–0RWCRaków Częstochowa crest
Full time
Lech Poznan crestLP1–0RWCRaków Częstochowa crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 3-0, finished 1-0).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-0 — partial.

Confidence HighCalibration error 0.01

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickEkstraklasa
Sun 6 Sep · 17:30 SAST
Lech Poznan crestLech Poznan
Projected3–0xG 3.90 · 0.50
Raków Częstochowa crestRaków Częstochowa

The model leans Lech Poznan (93%), projecting 3-0.

LPDrawRWC
Model confidenceHigh
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultLech Poznan win93%
Both teams to scoreNo63%
Total goalsOver 2.579%
Double chanceLech Poznan or draw98%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Lech Poznan (93%), projecting 3-0.

Projected 3-0 from 3.9–0.5 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 37%, over 2.5 goals 79%. Model projects 3.89–0.48 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → LP

    Model projects 3.89–0.48 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~79% likely

  • Model conviction

    → Neutral

    Strong, decisive model signal

Form & table

Lech Poznan crest
Lech Poznan
vs
Raków Częstochowa
Raków Częstochowa crest
1League position18
28Points6
29Goals for16
10Goals against28
19Goal difference-12

Current EKS table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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