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AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar — Eredivisie

AZ Alkmaar crestAZ Alkmaar
Full time1–0
Telstar crestTelstar

How the call landed

Eredivisie·20 Sep
Result hit
Model called
AZ Alkmaar crestAA3–0TELTelstar crest
Full time
AZ Alkmaar crestAA1–0TELTelstar crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 3-0, finished 1-0).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-0 — partial.

Confidence HighCalibration error 0.01

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickEredivisie
Sun 20 Sep · 14:30 SAST
AZ Alkmaar crestAZ Alkmaar
Projected3–0xG 3.90 · 0.60
Telstar crestTelstar

The model leans Az Alkmaar (92%), projecting 3-0.

AADrawTEL
Model confidenceHigh
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultAz Alkmaar win92%
Both teams to scoreNo59%
Total goalsOver 2.580%
Double chanceAz Alkmaar or draw98%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Az Alkmaar (92%), projecting 3-0.

Projected 3-0 from 3.9–0.6 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 41%, over 2.5 goals 80%. Model projects 3.85–0.55 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → AA

    Model projects 3.85–0.55 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~80% likely

  • Model conviction

    → Neutral

    Strong, decisive model signal

Form & table

AZ Alkmaar crest
AZ Alkmaar
vs
Telstar
Telstar crest
5League position16
20Points6
20Goals for12
12Goals against21
8Goal difference-9

Current Eredivisie table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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