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Heerenveen vs Telstar — Eredivisie

Heerenveen crestHeerenveen
Full time0–0
Telstar crestTelstar

How the call landed

Eredivisie·13 Sep
1 market hit
Model called
Heerenveen crestHEE3–0TELTelstar crest
Full time
Heerenveen crestHEE0–0TELTelstar crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-0 — missed.

Confidence HighCalibration error 0.60

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickEredivisie
Sun 13 Sep · 14:30 SAST
Heerenveen crestHeerenveen
Projected3–0xG 2.70 · 0.70
Telstar crestTelstar

The model leans Heerenveen (77%), projecting 3-0.

HEEDrawTEL
Model confidenceModerate
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultHeerenveen win77%
Both teams to scoreNo51%
Total goalsOver 2.566%
Double chanceHeerenveen or draw92%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Heerenveen (77%), projecting 3-0.

Projected 3-0 from 2.7–0.7 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 49%, over 2.5 goals 66%. Model projects 2.68–0.74 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → HEE

    Model projects 2.68–0.74 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~66% likely

  • Model conviction

    → Neutral

    Strong, decisive model signal

Form & table

Heerenveen crest
Heerenveen
vs
Telstar
Telstar crest
7League position16
15Points6
18Goals for12
13Goals against21
5Goal difference-9

Current Eredivisie table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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