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PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam — Eredivisie

PSV Eindhoven crestPSV Eindhoven
Full time4–1
Sparta Rotterdam crestSparta Rotterdam

How the call landed

Eredivisie·13 Sep
Result hit
Model called
PSV Eindhoven crestPE3–0SRSparta Rotterdam crest
Full time
PSV Eindhoven crestPE4–1SRSparta Rotterdam crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 3-0, finished 4-1).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 4-1 — partial.

Confidence HighCalibration error 0.02

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickEredivisie
Sun 13 Sep · 20:00 SAST
PSV Eindhoven crestPSV Eindhoven
Projected3–0xG 3.00 · 0.60
Sparta Rotterdam crestSparta Rotterdam

The model leans PSV Eindhoven (86%), projecting 3-0.

PEDrawSR
Model confidenceHigh
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultPSV Eindhoven win86%
Both teams to scoreNo59%
Total goalsOver 2.569%
Double chancePSV Eindhoven or draw96%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans PSV Eindhoven (86%), projecting 3-0.

Projected 3-0 from 3.0–0.6 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 41%, over 2.5 goals 69%. Model projects 3.00–0.56 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → PE

    Model projects 3.00–0.56 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~69% likely

  • Model conviction

    → Neutral

    Strong, decisive model signal

Form & table

PSV Eindhoven crest
PSV Eindhoven
vs
Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam crest
3League position14
20Points9
28Goals for17
13Goals against24
15Goal difference-7

Current Eredivisie table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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