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Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar — Eredivisie

Heerenveen crestHeerenveen
Full time2–3
AZ Alkmaar crestAZ Alkmaar

How the call landed

Eredivisie·6 Sep
Result hit
Model called
Heerenveen crestHEE1–2AAAZ Alkmaar crest
Full time
Heerenveen crestHEE2–3AAAZ Alkmaar crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 1-2, finished 2-3).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 2-3 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.35

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickEredivisie
Sun 6 Sep · 14:30 SAST
Heerenveen crestHeerenveen
Projected1–2xG 1.40 · 1.70
AZ Alkmaar crestAZ Alkmaar

No strong lean — near even (28% / 31% / 41%), projecting 1-2.

HEEDrawAA
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean41%
Both teams to scoreYes62%
Total goalsOver 2.560%
Double chanceNo strong lean72%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (28% / 31% / 41%), projecting 1-2.

Projected 1-2 from 1.4–1.7 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 62%, over 2.5 goals 60%. Model projects 1.39–1.71 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → AA

    Model projects 1.39–1.71 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~60% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~62% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Heerenveen crest
Heerenveen
vs
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar crest
7League position5
15Points20
18Goals for20
13Goals against12
5Goal difference8

Current Eredivisie table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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