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Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven — Eredivisie

Ajax crestAjax
Full time1–3
PSV Eindhoven crestPSV Eindhoven

How the call landed

Eredivisie·5 Sep
Result hit
Model called
Ajax crestAJA0–2PEPSV Eindhoven crest
Full time
Ajax crestAJA1–3PEPSV Eindhoven crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 0-2, finished 1-3).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 1-3 — partial.

Confidence ModerateCalibration error 0.10

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickEredivisie
Sat 5 Sep · 20:00 SAST
Ajax crestAjax
Projected0–2xG 0.90 · 2.20
PSV Eindhoven crestPSV Eindhoven

The model leans PSV Eindhoven (68%), projecting 0-2.

AJADrawPE
Model confidenceModerate
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultPSV Eindhoven win68%
Both teams to scoreYes51%
Total goalsOver 2.559%
Double chanceDraw or PSV Eindhoven88%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans PSV Eindhoven (68%), projecting 0-2.

Projected 0-2 from 0.9–2.2 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 51%, over 2.5 goals 59%. Model projects 0.87–2.19 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → PE

    Model projects 0.87–2.19 expected goals

Form & table

Ajax crest
Ajax
vs
PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven crest
2League position3
21Points20
29Goals for28
13Goals against13
16Goal difference15

Current Eredivisie table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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