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Willem II vs Excelsior — Eredivisie

Willem II crestWillem II
Full time0–3
Excelsior crestExcelsior

How the call landed

Eredivisie·5 Sep
2 markets hit
Model called
Willem II crestWI5–0EXCExcelsior crest
Full time
Willem II crestWI0–3EXCExcelsior crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-3 — missed.

Confidence HighCalibration error 0.96

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickEredivisie
Sat 5 Sep · 21:00 SAST
Willem II crestWillem II
Projected5–0xG 5.60 · 0.30
Excelsior crestExcelsior

The model leans Willem Ii (99%), projecting 5-0.

WIDrawEXC
Model confidenceHigh
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultWillem Ii win99%
Both teams to scoreNo76%
Total goalsOver 2.582%
Double chanceWillem Ii or draw100%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Willem Ii (99%), projecting 5-0.

Projected 5-0 from 5.6–0.3 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 24%, over 2.5 goals 82%. Model projects 5.63–0.33 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → WI

    Model projects 5.63–0.33 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~82% likely

  • Model conviction

    → Neutral

    Strong, decisive model signal

Form & table

Willem II crest
Willem II
vs
Excelsior
Excelsior crest
18League position13
2Points11
10Goals for16
32Goals against19
-22Goal difference-3

Current Eredivisie table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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