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Omonia Nicosia vs Celta Vigo — UEFA Europa League

Omonia Nicosia crestOmonia Nicosia
Full time1–0
Celta Vigo crestCelta Vigo

How the call landed

UEFA Europa League·16 Sep
Result hit
Model called
Omonia Nicosia crestON2–1CVCelta Vigo crest
Full time
Omonia Nicosia crestON1–0CVCelta Vigo crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 2-1, finished 1-0).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-0 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.29

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickUEFA Europa League
Wed 16 Sep · 18:45 SAST
Omonia Nicosia crestOmonia Nicosia
Projected2–1xG 1.70 · 1.20
Celta Vigo crestCelta Vigo

No strong lean — near even (46% / 30% / 24%), projecting 2-1.

ONDrawCV
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean46%
Both teams to scoreYes55%
Total goalsOver 2.554%
Double chanceNo strong lean76%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (46% / 30% / 24%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 1.7–1.2 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 55%, over 2.5 goals 54%. Model projects 1.68–1.15 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → ON

    Model projects 1.68–1.15 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Omonia Nicosia crest
Omonia Nicosia
vs
Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo crest
11League position25
6Points3
5Goals for3
4Goals against4
1Goal difference-1

Current UEL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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