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Hampton & Richmond vs Crowborough Athletic — FA Cup

Hampton & Richmond crestHampton & Richmond
Full time3–3
Crowborough Athletic crestCrowborough Athletic

How the call landed

FA Cup·19 Sep
2 markets hit
Model called
Hampton & Richmond crestHR2–1CACrowborough Athletic crest
Full time
Hampton & Richmond crestHR3–3CACrowborough Athletic crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 3-3 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.32

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickFA Cup
Sat 19 Sep · 16:00 SAST
Hampton & Richmond crestHampton & Richmond
Projected2–1xG 1.60 · 1.90
Crowborough Athletic crestCrowborough Athletic

The model leans Hampton Richmond (56%), projecting 2-1.

HRDrawCA
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultHampton Richmond win56%
Both teams to scoreYes67%
Total goalsOver 2.567%
Double chanceHampton Richmond or draw75%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Hampton Richmond (56%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 1.6–1.9 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 67%, over 2.5 goals 67%. Over 2.5 goals ~67% likely

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~67% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~67% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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