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Needham Market vs Braintree — FA Cup

Needham Market crestNeedham Market
Full time3–3
Braintree crestBraintree

How the call landed

FA Cup·19 Sep
2 markets hit
Model called
Needham Market crestNM1–2BRABraintree crest
Full time
Needham Market crestNM3–3BRABraintree crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 3-3 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.18

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickFA Cup
Sat 19 Sep · 16:00 SAST
Needham Market crestNeedham Market
Projected1–2xG 2.00 · 1.70
Braintree crestBraintree

No strong lean — near even (37% / 20% / 43%), projecting 1-2.

NMDrawBRA
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean43%
Both teams to scoreYes71%
Total goalsOver 2.571%
Double chanceNo strong lean63%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (37% / 20% / 43%), projecting 1-2.

Projected 1-2 from 2.0–1.7 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 71%, over 2.5 goals 71%. Over 2.5 goals ~71% likely

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~71% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~71% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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