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Weston-super-Mare vs Wimborne Town — FA Cup

Weston-super-Mare crestWeston-super-Mare
Full time1–1
Wimborne Town crestWimborne Town

How the call landed

FA Cup·19 Sep
1 market hit
Model called
Weston-super-Mare crestWSM2–1WTWimborne Town crest
Full time
Weston-super-Mare crestWSM1–1WTWimborne Town crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-1 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.30

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickFA Cup
Sat 19 Sep · 16:00 SAST
Weston-super-Mare crestWeston-super-Mare
Projected2–1xG 1.90 · 3.00
Wimborne Town crestWimborne Town

The model leans Weston Super Mare (55%), projecting 2-1.

WSMDrawWT
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultWeston Super Mare win55%
Both teams to scoreYes81%
Total goalsOver 2.587%
Double chanceWeston Super Mare or draw78%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Weston Super Mare (55%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 1.9–3.0 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 81%, over 2.5 goals 87%. Model projects 1.91–3.03 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → WT

    Model projects 1.91–3.03 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~87% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~81% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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