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Prestwich Heys vs South Liverpool — FA Cup

Prestwich Heys crestPrestwich Heys
Full time1–2
South Liverpool crestSouth Liverpool

How the call landed

FA Cup·8 Sep
Missed
Model called
Prestwich Heys crestPH1–0SLSouth Liverpool crest
Full time
Prestwich Heys crestPH1–2SLSouth Liverpool crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Under 2.5

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Under 2.5, was Over 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-2 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.23

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickFA Cup
Tue 8 Sep · 20:45 SAST
Prestwich Heys crestPrestwich Heys
Projected1–0xG 0.20 · 0.20
South Liverpool crestSouth Liverpool

No strong lean — near even (47% / 20% / 33%), projecting 1-0.

PHDrawSL
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean47%
Both teams to scoreNo98%
Total goalsUnder 2.5100%
Double chanceNo strong lean67%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (47% / 20% / 33%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 0.2–0.2 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 2%, over 2.5 goals 0%. Under 2.5 goals ~100% likely

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Low-tempo profile

    → Neutral

    Under 2.5 goals ~100% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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