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Newmarket vs Canvey Island — FA Cup

Newmarket crestNewmarket
Full time0–1
Canvey Island crestCanvey Island

How the call landed

FA Cup·8 Sep
2 markets hit
Model called
Newmarket crestNEW1–0CICanvey Island crest
Full time
Newmarket crestNEW0–1CICanvey Island crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Under 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).
  • –Total goals call landed (Under 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-1 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.20

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickFA Cup
Tue 8 Sep · 20:45 SAST
Newmarket crestNewmarket
Projected1–0xG 0.20 · 0.20
Canvey Island crestCanvey Island

No strong lean — near even (45% / 22% / 33%), projecting 1-0.

NEWDrawCI
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean45%
Both teams to scoreNo98%
Total goalsUnder 2.5100%
Double chanceNo strong lean67%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (45% / 22% / 33%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 0.2–0.2 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 2%, over 2.5 goals 0%. Under 2.5 goals ~100% likely

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Low-tempo profile

    → Neutral

    Under 2.5 goals ~100% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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