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Whyteleafe vs Crowborough Athletic — FA Cup

Whyteleafe crestWhyteleafe
Full time2–3
Crowborough Athletic crestCrowborough Athletic

How the call landed

FA Cup·8 Sep
Missed
Model called
Whyteleafe crestWHY1–0CACrowborough Athletic crest
Full time
Whyteleafe crestWHY2–3CACrowborough Athletic crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Under 2.5

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Under 2.5, was Over 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 2-3 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.23

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickFA Cup
Tue 8 Sep · 20:45 SAST
Whyteleafe crestWhyteleafe
Projected1–0xG 0.20 · 0.20
Crowborough Athletic crestCrowborough Athletic

No strong lean — near even (48% / 21% / 31%), projecting 1-0.

WHYDrawCA
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean48%
Both teams to scoreNo98%
Total goalsUnder 2.5100%
Double chanceNo strong lean69%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (48% / 21% / 31%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 0.2–0.2 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 2%, over 2.5 goals 0%. Under 2.5 goals ~100% likely

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Low-tempo profile

    → Neutral

    Under 2.5 goals ~100% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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