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Needham Market vs Stanway Rovers — FA Cup

Needham Market crestNeedham Market
Full time3–1
Stanway Rovers crestStanway Rovers

How the call landed

FA Cup·8 Sep
Result hit
Model called
Needham Market crestNM1–0SRStanway Rovers crest
Full time
Needham Market crestNM3–1SRStanway Rovers crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Under 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 1-0, finished 3-1).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Under 2.5, was Over 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 3-1 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.32

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickFA Cup
Tue 8 Sep · 20:45 SAST
Needham Market crestNeedham Market
Projected1–0xG 0.30 · 0.40
Stanway Rovers crestStanway Rovers

No strong lean — near even (44% / 21% / 35%), projecting 1-0.

NMDrawSR
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean44%
Both teams to scoreNo93%
Total goalsUnder 2.597%
Double chanceNo strong lean65%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (44% / 21% / 35%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 0.3–0.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 7%, over 2.5 goals 3%. Under 2.5 goals ~97% likely

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Low-tempo profile

    → Neutral

    Under 2.5 goals ~97% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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