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Marine vs Radcliffe — FA Cup

Marine crestMarine
Full time3–2
Radcliffe crestRadcliffe

How the call landed

FA Cup·19 Sep
Result hit
Model called
Marine crestMAR2–1RADRadcliffe crest
Full time
Marine crestMAR3–2RADRadcliffe crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 2-1, finished 3-2).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 3-2 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.27

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickFA Cup
Sat 19 Sep · 16:00 SAST
Marine crestMarine
Projected2–1xG 1.40 · 1.40
Radcliffe crestRadcliffe

No strong lean — near even (48% / 19% / 33%), projecting 2-1.

MARDrawRAD
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean48%
Both teams to scoreYes55%
Total goalsOver 2.551%
Double chanceNo strong lean67%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (48% / 19% / 33%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 1.4–1.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 55%, over 2.5 goals 51%. Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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