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Morecambe vs Southport — FA Cup

Morecambe crestMorecambe
Full time2–0
Southport crestSouthport

How the call landed

FA Cup·19 Sep
Result hit
Model called
Morecambe crestMOR2–1SOUSouthport crest
Full time
Morecambe crestMOR2–0SOUSouthport crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 2-1, finished 2-0).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 2-0 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.30

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickFA Cup
Sat 19 Sep · 16:00 SAST
Morecambe crestMorecambe
Projected2–1xG 1.40 · 1.40
Southport crestSouthport

No strong lean — near even (45% / 19% / 36%), projecting 2-1.

MORDrawSOU
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean45%
Both teams to scoreYes55%
Total goalsOver 2.551%
Double chanceNo strong lean64%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (45% / 19% / 36%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 1.4–1.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 55%, over 2.5 goals 51%. Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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