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Buxton vs Ashton United — FA Cup

Buxton crestBuxton
Full time1–0
Ashton United crestAshton United

How the call landed

FA Cup·19 Sep
Result hit
Model called
Buxton crestBUX2–1AUAshton United crest
Full time
Buxton crestBUX1–0AUAshton United crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 2-1, finished 1-0).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-0 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.20

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickFA Cup
Sat 19 Sep · 16:00 SAST
Buxton crestBuxton
Projected2–1xG 1.40 · 1.40
Ashton United crestAshton United

The model leans Buxton (55%), projecting 2-1.

BUXDrawAU
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultBuxton win55%
Both teams to scoreYes55%
Total goalsOver 2.551%
Double chanceBuxton or draw76%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Buxton (55%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 1.4–1.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 55%, over 2.5 goals 51%. Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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