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AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Braintree — FA Cup

AFC Rushden & Diamonds crestAFC Rushden & Diamonds
Full time2–1
Braintree crestBraintree

How the call landed

FA Cup·3 Oct
Exact score
Model called
AFC Rushden & Diamonds crestARD2–1BRABraintree crest
Full time
AFC Rushden & Diamonds crestARD2–1BRABraintree crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Nailed the exact scoreline (2-1).
  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 2-1 — correct.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.35

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickFA Cup
Sat 3 Oct · 16:00 SAST
AFC Rushden & Diamonds crestAFC Rushden & Diamonds
Projected2–1xG 3.00 · 1.50
Braintree crestBraintree

No strong lean — near even (41% / 20% / 39%), projecting 2-1.

ARDDrawBRA
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean41%
Both teams to scoreYes74%
Total goalsOver 2.583%
Double chanceNo strong lean61%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (41% / 20% / 39%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 3.0–1.5 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 74%, over 2.5 goals 83%. Model projects 3.01–1.53 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → ARD

    Model projects 3.01–1.53 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~83% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~74% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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