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Buxton vs South Shields — FA Cup

Buxton crestBuxton
Full time0–2
South Shields crestSouth Shields

How the call landed

FA Cup·3 Oct
Result hit
Model called
Buxton crestBUX0–3SSSouth Shields crest
Full time
Buxton crestBUX0–2SSSouth Shields crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 0-3, finished 0-2).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 0-2 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.31

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickFA Cup
Sat 3 Oct · 16:00 SAST
Buxton crestBuxton
Projected0–3xG 0.70 · 2.80
South Shields crestSouth Shields

No strong lean — near even (33% / 23% / 44%), projecting 0-3.

BUXDrawSS
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean44%
Both teams to scoreNo52%
Total goalsOver 2.568%
Double chanceNo strong lean67%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (33% / 23% / 44%), projecting 0-3.

Projected 0-3 from 0.7–2.8 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 48%, over 2.5 goals 68%. Model projects 0.72–2.78 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → SS

    Model projects 0.72–2.78 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~68% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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