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Brackley Town vs Chelmsford City — FA Cup

Brackley Town crestBrackley Town
Full time0–2
Chelmsford City crestChelmsford City

How the call landed

FA Cup·3 Oct
2 markets hit
Model called
Brackley Town crestBT1–0CCChelmsford City crest
Full time
Brackley Town crestBT0–2CCChelmsford City crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Under 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).
  • –Total goals call landed (Under 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-2 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.32

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickFA Cup
Sat 3 Oct · 16:00 SAST
Brackley Town crestBrackley Town
Projected1–0xG 0.40 · 0.20
Chelmsford City crestChelmsford City

The model leans Brackley Town (57%), projecting 1-0.

BTDrawCC
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultBrackley Town win57%
Both teams to scoreNo96%
Total goalsUnder 2.599%
Double chanceBrackley Town or draw73%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Brackley Town (57%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 0.4–0.2 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 4%, over 2.5 goals 1%. Under 2.5 goals ~99% likely

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Low-tempo profile

    → Neutral

    Under 2.5 goals ~99% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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