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Morecambe vs Darlington 1883 — FA Cup

Morecambe crestMorecambe
Full time3–0
Darlington 1883 crestDarlington 1883

How the call landed

FA Cup·3 Oct
Result hit
Model called
Morecambe crestMOR4–3D1Darlington 1883 crest
Full time
Morecambe crestMOR3–0D1Darlington 1883 crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 4-3, finished 3-0).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 3-0 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.31

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickFA Cup
Sat 3 Oct · 16:00 SAST
Morecambe crestMorecambe
Projected4–3xG 2.90 · 4.80
Darlington 1883 crestDarlington 1883

No strong lean — near even (45% / 21% / 34%), projecting 4-3.

MORDrawD1
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean45%
Both teams to scoreYes88%
Total goalsOver 2.593%
Double chanceNo strong lean66%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (45% / 21% / 34%), projecting 4-3.

Projected 4-3 from 2.9–4.8 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 88%, over 2.5 goals 93%. Model projects 2.93–4.77 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → D1

    Model projects 2.93–4.77 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~93% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~88% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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