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Marine vs Warrington Town — FA Cup

Marine crestMarine
Full time2–0
Warrington Town crestWarrington Town

How the call landed

FA Cup·3 Oct
Result hit
Model called
Marine crestMAR3–0WTWarrington Town crest
Full time
Marine crestMAR2–0WTWarrington Town crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 3-0, finished 2-0).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 2-0 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.27

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickFA Cup
Sat 3 Oct · 16:00 SAST
Marine crestMarine
Projected3–0xG 0.60 · 2.70
Warrington Town crestWarrington Town

No strong lean — near even (48% / 18% / 34%), projecting 3-0.

MARDrawWT
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean48%
Both teams to scoreNo60%
Total goalsOver 2.563%
Double chanceNo strong lean66%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (48% / 18% / 34%), projecting 3-0.

Projected 3-0 from 0.6–2.7 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 40%, over 2.5 goals 63%. Model projects 0.57–2.68 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → WT

    Model projects 0.57–2.68 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~63% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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