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Wimborne Town vs Portishead Town — FA Cup

Wimborne Town crestWimborne Town
Full time0–0
Portishead Town crestPortishead Town

How the call landed

FA Cup·5 Sep
Missed
Model called
Wimborne Town crestWT2–3PTPortishead Town crest
Full time
Wimborne Town crestWT0–0PTPortishead Town crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 0-0 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.27

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickFA Cup
Sat 5 Sep · 16:00 SAST
Wimborne Town crestWimborne Town
Projected2–3xG 3.40 · 2.50
Portishead Town crestPortishead Town

No strong lean — near even (35% / 12% / 53%), projecting 2-3.

WTDrawPT
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean53%
Both teams to scoreYes88%
Total goalsOver 2.592%
Double chanceNo strong lean65%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (35% / 12% / 53%), projecting 2-3.

Projected 2-3 from 3.4–2.5 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 88%, over 2.5 goals 92%. Model projects 3.42–2.50 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → WT

    Model projects 3.42–2.50 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~92% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~88% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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