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Canvey Island vs Newmarket — FA Cup

Canvey Island crestCanvey Island
Full time1–1
Newmarket crestNewmarket

How the call landed

FA Cup·5 Sep
1 market hit
Model called
Canvey Island crestCI2–1NEWNewmarket crest
Full time
Canvey Island crestCI1–1NEWNewmarket crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-1 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.22

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickFA Cup
Sat 5 Sep · 16:00 SAST
Canvey Island crestCanvey Island
Projected2–1xG 1.50 · 2.00
Newmarket crestNewmarket

No strong lean — near even (46% / 8% / 46%), projecting 2-1.

CIDrawNEW
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean46%
Both teams to scoreYes67%
Total goalsOver 2.568%
Double chanceNo strong lean54%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (46% / 8% / 46%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 1.5–2.0 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 67%, over 2.5 goals 68%. Model projects 1.50–2.00 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → NEW

    Model projects 1.50–2.00 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~68% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~67% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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