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Crowborough Athletic vs Whyteleafe — FA Cup

Crowborough Athletic crestCrowborough Athletic
Full time1–1
Whyteleafe crestWhyteleafe

How the call landed

FA Cup·5 Sep
1 market hit
Model called
Crowborough Athletic crestCA1–2WHYWhyteleafe crest
Full time
Crowborough Athletic crestCA1–1WHYWhyteleafe crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 1-1 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.37

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickFA Cup
Sat 5 Sep · 16:00 SAST
Crowborough Athletic crestCrowborough Athletic
Projected1–2xG 2.30 · 1.80
Whyteleafe crestWhyteleafe

The model leans Whyteleafe (62%), projecting 1-2.

CADrawWHY
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultWhyteleafe win62%
Both teams to scoreYes76%
Total goalsOver 2.578%
Double chanceDraw or Whyteleafe71%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Whyteleafe (62%), projecting 1-2.

Projected 1-2 from 2.3–1.8 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 76%, over 2.5 goals 78%. Model projects 2.33–1.83 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → CA

    Model projects 2.33–1.83 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~78% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~76% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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