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Avro vs Witton Albion — FA Cup

Avro crestAvro
Full time0–2
Witton Albion crestWitton Albion

How the call landed

FA Cup·5 Sep
Missed
Model called
Avro crestAVR2–1WAWitton Albion crest
Full time
Avro crestAVR0–2WAWitton Albion crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-2 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.28

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickFA Cup
Sat 5 Sep · 16:00 SAST
Avro crestAvro
Projected2–1xG 1.40 · 2.20
Witton Albion crestWitton Albion

No strong lean — near even (53% / 11% / 36%), projecting 2-1.

AVRDrawWA
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean53%
Both teams to scoreYes66%
Total goalsOver 2.568%
Double chanceNo strong lean64%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (53% / 11% / 36%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 1.4–2.2 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 66%, over 2.5 goals 68%. Model projects 1.37–2.17 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → WA

    Model projects 1.37–2.17 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~68% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~66% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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