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AFC Portchester vs Portland United — FA Cup

AFC Portchester crestAFC Portchester
Full time2–1
Portland United crestPortland United

How the call landed

FA Cup·5 Sep
2 markets hit
Model called
AFC Portchester crestAP1–2PUPortland United crest
Full time
AFC Portchester crestAP2–1PUPortland United crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (home_win).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 2-1 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.30

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickFA Cup
Sat 5 Sep · 16:00 SAST
AFC Portchester crestAFC Portchester
Projected1–2xG 2.30 · 1.20
Portland United crestPortland United

The model leans Portland United (55%), projecting 1-2.

APDrawPU
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultPortland United win55%
Both teams to scoreYes63%
Total goalsOver 2.568%
Double chanceDraw or Portland United70%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Portland United (55%), projecting 1-2.

Projected 1-2 from 2.3–1.2 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 63%, over 2.5 goals 68%. Model projects 2.30–1.20 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → AP

    Model projects 2.30–1.20 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~68% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~63% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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