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Peterborough Sports vs Ipswich Wanderers — FA Cup

Peterborough Sports crestPeterborough Sports
Full time4–0
Ipswich Wanderers crestIpswich Wanderers

How the call landed

FA Cup·5 Sep
Result hit
Model called
Peterborough Sports crestPS2–1IWIpswich Wanderers crest
Full time
Peterborough Sports crestPS4–0IWIpswich Wanderers crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 2-1, finished 4-0).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 4-0 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.18

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickFA Cup
Sat 5 Sep · 16:00 SAST
Peterborough Sports crestPeterborough Sports
Projected2–1xG 1.50 · 1.80
Ipswich Wanderers crestIpswich Wanderers

The model leans Peterborough Sports (57%), projecting 2-1.

PSDrawIW
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultPeterborough Sports win57%
Both teams to scoreYes64%
Total goalsOver 2.563%
Double chancePeterborough Sports or draw70%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Peterborough Sports (57%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 1.5–1.8 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 64%, over 2.5 goals 63%. Over 2.5 goals ~63% likely

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~63% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~64% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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