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South Liverpool vs Prestwich Heys — FA Cup

South Liverpool crestSouth Liverpool
Full time2–2
Prestwich Heys crestPrestwich Heys

How the call landed

FA Cup·5 Sep
2 markets hit
Model called
South Liverpool crestSL2–1PHPrestwich Heys crest
Full time
South Liverpool crestSL2–2PHPrestwich Heys crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 2-2 — missed.

Confidence ModerateCalibration error 0.46

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickFA Cup
Sat 5 Sep · 16:00 SAST
South Liverpool crestSouth Liverpool
Projected2–1xG 1.00 · 4.00
Prestwich Heys crestPrestwich Heys

The model leans South Liverpool (68%), projecting 2-1.

SLDrawPH
Model confidenceModerate
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultSouth Liverpool win68%
Both teams to scoreYes61%
Total goalsOver 2.585%
Double chanceSouth Liverpool or draw79%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans South Liverpool (68%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 1.0–4.0 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 61%, over 2.5 goals 85%. Model projects 1.00–4.00 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → PH

    Model projects 1.00–4.00 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~85% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~61% likely

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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