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Shildon AFC vs Warrington Town — FA Cup

Shildon AFC crestShildon AFC
Full time2–2
Warrington Town crestWarrington Town

How the call landed

FA Cup·5 Sep
2 markets hit
Model called
Shildon AFC crestSA2–1WTWarrington Town crest
Full time
Shildon AFC crestSA2–2WTWarrington Town crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 2-2 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.21

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickFA Cup
Sat 5 Sep · 16:00 SAST
Shildon AFC crestShildon AFC
Projected2–1xG 2.80 · 1.10
Warrington Town crestWarrington Town

No strong lean — near even (45% / 11% / 44%), projecting 2-1.

SADrawWT
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean45%
Both teams to scoreYes62%
Total goalsOver 2.574%
Double chanceNo strong lean56%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (45% / 11% / 44%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 2.8–1.1 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 62%, over 2.5 goals 74%. Model projects 2.80–1.10 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → SA

    Model projects 2.80–1.10 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~74% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~62% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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