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Stanway Rovers vs Needham Market — FA Cup

How the call landed

FA Cup·5 Sep
Missed
Model called
Stanway Rovers crestSR2–1NMNeedham Market crest
Full time
Stanway Rovers crestSR0–0NMNeedham Market crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-0 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.30

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickFA Cup
Sat 5 Sep · 16:00 SAST
Stanway Rovers crestStanway Rovers
Projected2–1xG 1.80 · 1.80
Needham Market crestNeedham Market

No strong lean — near even (54% / 15% / 31%), projecting 2-1.

SRDrawNM
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean54%
Both teams to scoreYes68%
Total goalsOver 2.568%
Double chanceNo strong lean69%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (54% / 15% / 31%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 1.8–1.8 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 68%, over 2.5 goals 68%. Over 2.5 goals ~68% likely

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~68% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~68% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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