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China vs New Zealand — International Friendlies

China crestChina
Full time0–3
New Zealand crestNew Zealand

How the call landed

International Friendlies·27 Sep
2 markets hit
Model called
China crestCHI3–0NZNew Zealand crest
Full time
China crestCHI0–3NZNew Zealand crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-3 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.29

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickInternational Friendlies
Sun 27 Sep · 13:35 SAST
China crestChina
Projected3–0xG 3.70 · 0.20
New Zealand crestNew Zealand

No strong lean — near even (53% / 31% / 16%), projecting 3-0.

CHIDrawNZ
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean53%
Both teams to scoreNo79%
Total goalsOver 2.574%
Double chanceNo strong lean84%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (53% / 31% / 16%), projecting 3-0.

Projected 3-0 from 3.7–0.2 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 21%, over 2.5 goals 74%. Model projects 3.70–0.24 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → CHI

    Model projects 3.70–0.24 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~74% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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