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Albania U19 vs Lithuania U19 — International Friendlies

Albania U19 crestAlbania U19
Full time2–1
Lithuania U19 crestLithuania U19

How the call landed

International Friendlies·2 Oct
Exact score
Model called
Albania U19 crestAU2–1LULithuania U19 crest
Full time
Albania U19 crestAU2–1LULithuania U19 crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Nailed the exact scoreline (2-1).
  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 2-1 — correct.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.20

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickInternational Friendlies
Fri 2 Oct · 15:30 SAST
Albania U19 crestAlbania U19
Projected2–1xG 2.60 · 1.30
Lithuania U19 crestLithuania U19

The model leans Albania U19 (55%), projecting 2-1.

AUDrawLU
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultAlbania U19 win55%
Both teams to scoreYes67%
Total goalsOver 2.574%
Double chanceAlbania U19 or draw79%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Albania U19 (55%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 2.6–1.3 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 67%, over 2.5 goals 74%. Model projects 2.57–1.29 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → AU

    Model projects 2.57–1.29 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~74% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~67% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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